Africa–United States: A New Trade Paradigm and Türkiye’s PositionTurkish Ambassador Omar Faruk Dogan

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the January 2025 U.S. presidential election and his assumption of office, a new phase has begun in global trade. Through a strategy aimed at restructuring international trade based on customs duties, a process affecting approximately 184 countries has been launched.

This new global trade confrontation, initiated primarily to reduce the pressure exerted by China on the U.S. economy and market and to revive the American economy, has also begun to impact the African continent.

In May 2025, President Trump announced the introduction of increased customs duties affecting 30 African countries, applicable until September 30, 2025. The case of Lesotho, a small kingdom in southern Africa, is particularly striking: the country was subjected to a 50% tariff, even though its GDP per capita was below 920 dollars in 2023. Its economy relies mainly on textile exports to the U.S. market and on foreign aid, making it one of the poorest countries on the continent.

In addition to the minimum tariff of 10% imposed on all U.S. trading partners, the measures announced in May 2025 provide for additional duties of up to 50% for 56 countries, including 20 African countries. These include Madagascar and Mauritius (with tariffs raised to 47% and 40% respectively), as well as Botswana (37%), Angola (32%), Libya (31%), Algeria (30%), and South Africa (30%).

Although these new tariffs are officially presented as a means to compel countries with a trade surplus with the United States to rebalance their trade, it is clear that the economic situation and structural difficulties of many countries have not been sufficiently taken into account. Prominent African economists emphasize that countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar, whose exports to the United States are largely limited to textiles or vanilla, risk severe economic recession. On the eve of their industrialization process, these countries lack viable economic alternatives outside exports.

Considering that total U.S. imports from Africa amounted to only 39 billion dollars in 2024, it can be argued that these measures will not cause an immediate shock of extreme magnitude for the continent. However, they risk pushing African countries further toward China, which is in fact the real target of this American strategy.

It should also be noted that crude oil, natural gas, and strategic minerals have been exempted from these high tariffs, which warrants specific analysis. Another important point concerns products for which there is no alternative supply for the U.S. market, such as vanilla: in these cases, American consumers are primarily penalized by rising costs.

The approach of reshaping global trade through tariffs is likely to slow down global exchanges. Due to the expected decline in Chinese exports, a stagnation or even a drop in raw material prices could occur. This situation would particularly affect African countries whose economies rely almost exclusively on the export of a very limited number of products and would complicate their efforts to attract new foreign investments. In other words, African countries will be forced to seek new markets, new economic partners, and more balanced trade relations.

On a continent where China occupies an extremely dominant position, this American approach risks generating numerous unforeseen negative effects by pushing African countries toward a more economically powerful and attractive partner. Anticipating this development, the United States has reactivated a provisional trade agreement with around 30 African countries: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Launched in 2000, this agreement allows many African products to enter the U.S. market duty-free. It was approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, February 3, and extended until the end of 2026. Thus, the tax exemptions provided under AGOA will apply retroactively until that date for many African products imported into the United States.

Subject to compliance with a number of prerequisites (political pluralism, respect for human rights, fight against corruption, etc.), African countries will be able to export to the U.S. market without customs duties. This agreement, which theoretically covers 30 of the continent’s 54 countries, includes a wide range of products from textiles to certain agricultural products, animal feed, and vehicles. However, it includes numerous political conditions and also provides preferential treatment for American products.

The question of the extent to which African countries, committed to reclaiming their identity and preserving their independence, will accept this new approach remains open. It should be recalled that the statement by His Excellency the President of the Republic, “the world is bigger than five,” resonated strongly across the African continent. In response, China developed the concept of the “five no’s” in Africa, based on non-interference in African countries’ independence, internal affairs, relationship models, and identity values. In this context, the acceptability of the political rules imposed by the United States under the guise of tariff exemptions and the promotion of democracy is a subject of debate in its own right.

Conversely, Türkiye has adopted a clear and consistent position since 2003 as part of the new “African Strategy” defined by His Excellency the President of the Republic. Without demanding political concessions or undermining the values of African countries, Türkiye has demonstrated that a new model of relations, based on equality, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation, can be established and sustainably maintained. This model has been successfully implemented.

On this basis, many African and Sahelian countries have undertaken serious steps toward genuine economic independence while adopting a more cautious attitude toward alternative approaches. The negative rhetoric from certain Western circles against Türkiye, and in particular against His Excellency the President of the Republic, must be analyzed in light of this reality.

Within this relationship based on mutual respect and shared benefit, investments by our construction companies in Africa have increased significantly, as has our trade volume. In 2025, our exports to the continent rose by 16.6% to reach approximately 25 billion dollars, while our total trade volume approached the threshold of 40 billion dollars. At a time marked by a slowdown in global trade and multiple economic turbulences, this significant increase in exchanges with Africa is explained above all by an approach based on respect, equality, and partnership.

The acceptance by African countries of the new conditional American approach to tariff exemptions remains a central issue. Despite all its efforts, China has not achieved the expected results, mainly due to cultural, value-based, and relational differences that hinder the emergence of truly common principles. Furthermore, China’s unilateral interest in African mineral resources is well known and generates a degree of caution across the continent, which considerably enhances the value and attractiveness of Türkiye in the eyes of African countries.

Through its presence on the continent, Türkiye has not only developed trade relations but has also proposed a new political and economic model favorable to Africa, thereby helping to strengthen the position and value of the African continent and its peoples on the international stage.